Races · house · 2026 · Virginia
house · open seat
Virginia house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 91% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.8 (10th pctile) to D+33.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 91% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.9
80% CI: D +0.8 → D +33.0 · win prob 91%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.6
80% CI D +7.8 → D +23.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.1
80% CI R +7.0 → D +2.7
CV MAE 3.77
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 91¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the VA-10 House seat?” | 91¢ | 9¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 9 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet9
Endorsements tracked
Suhas Subramanyam9 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSuhas Subramanyam9 endorsers
Most notable · Abigail Spanberger · governor of Virginia (2026–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 3State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Abigail Spanberger · governor of Virginia (2026–present)
- Jennifer Wexton · VA-10 (2019–2025)
- Mark Warner · Virginia (2009–present)
- Tim Kaine · Virginia (2013–present)
- Wendy Gooditis · former HD-10 (2018–2024)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-05-04Suhas SubramanyamH4VA10279 ↗
Receipts
$991.9K
Disburse
$476.1K
Cash on hand
$606.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$13.34
D side
$13.34 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $13.34 | 100% | for Suhas Subramanyam |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
14 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
14 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles14
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.21
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.21
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 79%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets21%
Neutral79%
R-leaning outlets0%
21% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Virginia U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
2026 Virginia Special Election Results: Latest numbers for April 21, 2026
N
Virginia House of Delegates District 98 Special 2026: Live Election Results
N
Virginia First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
1
Primary Spotlight: Race for Virginia’s First Congressional District
W
West Virginia poll: 69% oppose ending school vaccine rules, including 57% of GOP
A
Poll: Virginia residents make it clear where they stand on data centers
C
Q&A with three candidates seeking Democratic nomination for Virginia’s 5th District
C
Q&A with Virginia’s three Republican primary candidates for U.S. Senate
W
Virginia voter guide: Parties nominate candidates for Congress, local offices ahead of 2026 midterms
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-05-04
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage14 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks