Races · house · 2026 · Virginia
house · open seat
Shannon Taylor vs Rob Wittman
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 64% R · market gap 18pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Tilt D (D win prob 54%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+4.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+20.7 (10th pctile) to D+11.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 64% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 36%, market says 54% — 18pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +4.6
80% CI: R +20.7 → D +11.5 · win prob 36%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +8.8
80% CI R +13.8 → R +5.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.9
80% CI R +6.8 → D +3.0
CV MAE 3.82
consensusMarket-implied
D +1.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 55¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 15 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 55% · polls 40%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Aug 9, 2026 · latest Public Policy Polling
Rob Wittman
VoteHub41.0%
VoteHub
Polling average41.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg41.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average41.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt below our average
Shannon Taylor
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg39.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average39.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Aug 9, 2026): Rob Wittman 41.0%, Shannon Taylor 40.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 541 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 40 · 41 |
Endorsements · 28 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet27
1
Endorsements tracked
Shannon Taylor27 · 96%
Rob Wittman1 · 4%
Total28
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DShannon Taylor27 endorsers
Most notable · Eileen Filler-Corn · former minority leader of the Virginia House of Delegates (2019–2020, 2022) from HD-41 (2010–2024)
Elected officials21
Federal 7State 14Local 0
Elected officials · 21
- Eileen Filler-Corn · former minority leader of the Virginia House of Delegates (2019–2020, 2022) from HD-41 (2010–2024)
- Scott Surovell · majority leader of the Virginia Senate (2024–present) from SD-34 (2016–present)
- Abigail Spanberger · governor of Virginia (2026–present)
- Ralph Northam · former governor of Virginia (2018–2022)
- Terry McAuliffe · former governor of Virginia (2014–2018)
- Mark Herring · former attorney general of Virginia (2014–2022)
- Mary Sue Terry · former attorney general of Virginia (1986–1993)
- Betsy Carr · HD-78 (2010–present)
- Creigh Deeds · SD-11 (2001–present)
- Delores McQuinn · HD-81 (2009–present)
- Don Beyer · VA-08 (2015–present)
- Eugene Vindman · VA-07 (2025–present)
- James Walkinshaw · VA-11 (2025–present)
- Jennifer McClellan · VA-04 (2023–present)
- Rodney Willett · HD-58 (2024–present)
- Schuyler VanValkenburg · SD-16 (2024–present)
- Suhas Subramanyam · VA-10 (2025–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Barbara Favola · SD-40
- Louise Lucas · president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from SD-18 (1992–present)
- Tim Kaine · Virginia (2013–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- NewDem Action Fund
RRob Wittman1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Rob Wittman
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$914.7K
Cash on hand
$3.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Shannon Taylor
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$477.8K
Cash on hand
$822.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean R3
Lean R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
41 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles41
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.07
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.07
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 7%
Neutral 93%
7% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets7%
Neutral93%
R-leaning outlets0%
7% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
West Virginia Del. Daniel Linville resigns from House after narrow primary loss
N
Forty-four candidates are running in Virginia’s 11 U.S. House districts — the second-highest since 2014
W
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
W
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
V
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
F
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
F
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
W
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
1
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
N
Virginia's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary draws seven candidates as forecasters rate general election Lean Republican
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements28 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks