Races · house · 2026 · Utah
house · open seat
Jonny Larsen vs Mike Kennedy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.9 (10th pctile) to R+11.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.9
80% CI: R +43.9 → R +11.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.1
80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 6¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?” | 6¢ | 93¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 6 candidates with no endorsements yet1
1
Endorsements tracked
Jonny Larsen1 · 50%
Mike Kennedy1 · 50%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMike Kennedy1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DJonny Larsen1 endorser
Most notable · Center for Freethought Equality
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Center for Freethought Equality
DBen McAdams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRiley Owen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPeter Crosby0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBlake Moore0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RCeleste Maloy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKent Udell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-12-19Ben McAdamsH8UT04053 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mike Kennedy
Receipts
$802.2K
Disburse
$556.6K
Cash on hand
$370.8K
Debts
$225.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jonny Larsen
Receipts
$34.4K
Disburse
$29.9K
Cash on hand
$4.5K
Debts
$30.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$22.8K
D side
$22.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
WelcomePAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WelcomePAC other · boosts D
| D | $22.8K | 100% | for Ben McAdams |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.08
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.08
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 8%
Neutral 92%
8% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets8%
Neutral92%
R-leaning outlets0%
8% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Utah First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
U
After redistricting saga, Moore leads GOP primary for Utah’s second congressional district
A
Decision Desk HQ projects Ben McAdams to win primary election for Utah’s 1st Congressional District
T
Live results: Utah Democrats jockey for redrawn House seat in primary
S
Ben McAdams wins primary race for Utah’s new blue-leaning 1st Congressional District
T
Live results: Utah Democrats jockey for redrawn House seat in primary
U
Poll: Three Utah GOP incumbents in trouble ahead of Tuesday's primary
N
Voters weigh what kind of Democrat they want for Utah's new, blue congressional seat
A
Local and Congressional primary races in Utah to watch this election day
D
New Utah Congressional District set for bold progressive leap in Democratic primary
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-12-19
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks