Races · house · 2026 · TX
house · open seat

Jason Pearce vs Pat Fallon

← TX house TX house →
Lean R R +2.0 · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Last poll 60d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 100% R

lean-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +36.0
80% CI: R +53.5 → R +18.5 · win prob 0%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +36.0
80% CI R +53.5 → R +18.5
CV MAE 13.66

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Feb 6 -2.0 -18.0 +16.0
Inside Elections Safe R Mar 7 -2.0 -18.0 +16.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Sep 18 -2.0 -18.0 +16.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 2 months ago (3/11/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Lean R R+2.0 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Safe R via pvi

In the news

News links surfaced via GDELT (a multi-source global news index). External links open in a new tab; we don't rehost article content.