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Races · house · 2026 · Texas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Jason Pearce vs Pat Fallon

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +28.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Pearce (D)
99% Fallon (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +28.6 · 80% CI R+44.7 → R+12.5 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 10¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.7 (10th pctile) to R+12.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.6
80% CI: R +44.7 → R +12.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +36.5
80% CI R +42.9 → R +30.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.5
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 10¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?”
10¢89¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Fallon · 100%3
RPat Fallon3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Organizations1
DJason Pearce0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11
Pat FallonH0TX04219 ↗
Receipts
$685.5K
Disburse
$283.2K
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$25.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jason PearceOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$11.8K
Disburse
$10.9K
Cash on hand
$877.32
Debts
$8.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$53.71
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$53.71 · 100%
Top spender
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR …
For / against split
For Fallon $53.71
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PACR$53.71100%for Pat Fallon

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks