Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Texas house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.7 (10th pctile) to R+5.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 78/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
78
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement8
1.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution8 / 100
Measured1.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.6
80% CI: R +37.7 → R +5.5 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat?” | 14¢ | 85¢ | +2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetRJohn Bonck0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-22Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$657.1K
D side
$17.2K · 3%
R side
$639.9K · 97%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $348.4K | 53% | for Jon Bonck |
| Club for Growth Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $279.6K | 43% | for Jon Bonck |
| GOPAC Election Fund other · boosts R
| R | $151.0K | 23% | for Shelly Dezevallos |
| FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. other · boosts R
| R | $30.0K | 5% | for Shelly Dezevallos |
| Win it Back PAC other · boosts D
| D | $21.0K | 3% | against Shelly Dezevallos |
| Texas First, America Always super pac · boosts R
| R | $20.0K | 3% | for Barrett McNabb |
| A BETTER MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $17.2K | 3% | against Jon Bonck |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $7.8K | 1% | for Jon Bonck |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-22
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks