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Races · house · 2026 · Texas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Greg Casar vs Ge'Neill Gary

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe DD +37.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Casar (D)
1% Gary (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +37.9 · 80% CI D+21.8 → D+54.0 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 94¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+26) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+37.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+21.8 (10th pctile) to D+54.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +37.9
80% CI: D +21.8 → D +54.0 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +50.5
80% CI D +42.9 → D +54.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the TX-37 House seat?”
94¢7¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 19 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
19Casar · 100%
DGreg Casar19 endorsers
Most notable · Sarah Eckhardt · state senator from the 14th district (2020–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 1State 5Local 3
Organizations8
Newspapers2
RGe'Neill Gary0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-08-02
Greg CasarH2TX35144 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$705.5K
Cash on hand
$722.9K
Debts
$10.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ge'Neill GaryOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$5.0K
Disburse
$4.3K
Cash on hand
$685.23
Debts
$6.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$37.5
D side
$37.5 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC
For / against split
For Casar $37.5
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
THE PEOPLE UNITED PACD$37.5100%for Greg Casar

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-08-02
Endorsements19 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks