Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Vicente Gonzalez vs Eric Flores
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 6d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 58% D · market gap 12pp
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+2.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.5 (10th pctile) to D+18.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 58% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 79/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 58%, market says 70% — 12pp gap.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
79
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement16
3.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution16 / 100
Measured3.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.6
80% CI: R +13.5 → D +18.7 · win prob 58%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +4.8
80% CI R +0.7 → D +11.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.5
80% CI R +1.7 → D +4.7
CV MAE 2.50
consensusMarket-implied
D +5.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 74¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 33 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 74% · polls 41%.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 | Ragnar Research PartnersFor · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 41 · 44 |
| Apr 28 | co/efficient+1For · efficient (R) | 777 · LV | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 40 · 41 |
Endorsements · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet4
8
Endorsements tracked
Vicente Gonzalez4 · 33%
Eric Flores8 · 67%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
REric Flores8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-08 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Monica De La Cruz · TX-15 (2023–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present) (post-primary)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- NRCC · MAGA Majority (post-primary)
DVicente Gonzalez4 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- AIPAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Latino Victory
- National Education Association
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-23Eric FloresH6TX34080 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$446.8K
Debts
$627.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$497.3K
D side
$2.0K · 0%
R side
$495.3K · 100%
Top spender
OPERATION GUARDIAN …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPERATION GUARDIAN SUPPORT PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $189.8K | 38% | for Eric Flores |
| GOPAC Election Fund super pac · boosts R
| R | $159.4K | 32% | for Eric Flores |
| Defending Main Street SuperPAC Inc. super pac · boosts R
| R | $135.0K | 27% | for Eric Flores |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $11.1K | 2% | for Eric Flores |
| Lone Star Rising PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.4K | 0% | for Vicente Gonzalez |
| TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
| D | $269.1 | 0% | for Vicente Gonzalez |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY other · boosts D
| D | $224.13 | 0% | for Vicente Gonzalez |
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.71 | 0% | for Eric Flores |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
38 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
38 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles38
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.16
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.21 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.16
Week-over-weekshift −0.21 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 18%
Neutral 79%
R 3%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets18%
Neutral79%
R-leaning outlets3%
21% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
U.S. Supreme Court again enables Texas election law to go into effect
D
Election denier Nate Schatzline to advise Abbott on Texas voting policy
S
Texas House candidate for Fort Worth area district posts racially coded meme
T
Rep. Nate Schatzline resigns from Texas House to lead “election integrity” policy in Gov. Abbott’s office
C
Q&A: Meet the Democratic candidates running for Texas House District 49 in May's runoff election
W
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
F
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
M
Tuesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.26: Poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied in Texas
P
Talarico and Paxton tied in latest Texas Senate poll
W
Shock poll : Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race , threatening GOP stronghold
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-23
Endorsements25 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage38 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks