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Races · house · 2026 · Texas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Frederick Haynes III vs Everett Jackson

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe DD +37.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% III (D)
1% Jackson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +37.6 · 80% CI D+21.5 → D+53.7 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 95¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+25) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+37.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+21.5 (10th pctile) to D+53.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +37.6
80% CI: D +21.5 → D +53.7 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +48.7
80% CI D +33.3 → D +53.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +16.4
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat?”
95¢6¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 15 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
15III · 100%
DFrederick Haynes III15 endorsers
Most notable · Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
Organizations7
Elected officials6
Federal 4State 1Local 1
Newspapers2
REverett Jackson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-20
Frederick Haynes IIIH6TX30245 ↗
Receipts
$347.4K
Disburse
$222.6K
Cash on hand
$124.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Everett JacksonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$16.9K
Disburse
$14.5K
Cash on hand
$2.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$200.0K
D side
$200.0K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
AMERICAN PRIORITIES
For / against split
For III $200.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN PRIORITIESD$100.0K50%for Frederick Haynes III
Justice Democrats PACD$100.0K50%for Frederick Haynes III

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-20
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks