Races · house · 2026 · Texas

house · open seat

Kevin Burge vs Beth Van Duyne

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +17.4 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
8% Burge (D)
92% Duyne (R)
Win probability
Kevin Burge8% (D)
Beth Van Duyne92% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +17.4
80% CIR+33.5 → R+1.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +17.4 · 80% CI R+33.5 → R+1.3 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 21¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 92% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.5 (10th pctile) to R+1.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +17.4

80% CI: R +33.5 → R +1.3 · win prob 8%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +19.3

80% CI R +23.4 → R +13.0

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +7.4

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 21¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?”	21¢	76¢	+1¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

1Burge · 25%
Duyne · 75%3
Endorsements tracked
Kevin Burge1 · 25%
Beth Van Duyne3 · 75%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RBeth Van Duyne3 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials2

Federal 1State 1Local 0

Organizations1

DKevin Burge1 endorser

Most notable · AFL-CIO · FL-CIO

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11

Beth Van DuyneH0TX24209 ↗

Receipts

$2.2M

Disburse

$1.4M

Cash on hand

$2.8M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Kevin BurgeOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$164.6K

Disburse

$146.9K

Cash on hand

$17.7K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$53.71

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$53.71 · 100%

Top spender

TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR …

For / against split

For Duyne $53.71

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	R	$53.71	100%	for Beth Van Duyne

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.