Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Marquette Greene-Scott vs Trever Nehls
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 95% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.2 (10th pctile) to R+5.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.1
80% CI: R +37.2 → R +5.0 · win prob 5%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.1
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 11¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-22 House seat?” | 11¢ | 90¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
10
Endorsements tracked
Marquette Greene-Scott2 · 17%
Trever Nehls10 · 83%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTrever Nehls10 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 8State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Dan Patrick · lieutenant governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Randy Weber · TX-14 (2013–present)
- Ronny Jackson · TX-13 (2021–present)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
- Troy Nehls · U.S. representative from Texas's 22nd congressional district (2021–present) (candidate's brother)
DMarquette Greene-Scott2 endorsers
Most notable · Houston Chronicle
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Houston Chronicle
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-19Trever NehlsH6TX22283 ↗
Receipts
$182.5K
Disburse
$146.1K
Cash on hand
$36.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Marquette Greene-Scott
Receipts
$41.0K
Disburse
$40.5K
Cash on hand
$116.29
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$141.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$141.3K · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $141.3K | 100% | for Trever Nehls |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-19
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks