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Races · house · 2026 · Texas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Texas house

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +22.2 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 150d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
4% (D)
96% Teixeira (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +22.2 · 80% CI R+38.3 → R+6.1 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 16¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.2 (10th pctile) to R+6.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.2
80% CI: R +38.3 → R +6.1 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.4
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 16¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?”
16¢82¢+4¢—+0

Endorsements · 21 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
Teixeira · 100%21
RMark Teixeira21 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials17
Federal 15State 1Local 1
Organizations3
Celebrity1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-04-20
Mark TeixeiraH6TX21301 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$277.3K
Debts
$2.8M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$930.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$930.9K · 100%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVES FOR A…
For / against split
For Teixeira $930.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.R$632.7K68%for Mark Teixeira
Club for Growth ActionR$260.1K28%for Mark Teixeira
GOPAC Election FundR$38.0K4%for Mark Teixeira

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-04-20
Endorsements31 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks