Races · house · 2026 · Texas

house · open seat

Joaquin Castro vs Edgardo Baez

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe DD +25.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
98% Castro (D)
2% Baez (R)
Win probability
Joaquin Castro98% (D)
Edgardo Baez2% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +25.5
80% CID+9.4 → D+41.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +25.5 · 80% CI D+9.4 → D+41.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+9.4 (10th pctile) to D+41.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +25.5

80% CI: D +9.4 → D +41.6 · win prob 98%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +26.0

80% CI D +20.3 → D +37.6

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-20 House seat?”	94¢	6¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

4Castro · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Joaquin Castro4 · 100%
Edgardo Baez0 · 0%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJoaquin Castro4 endorsers

Most notable · San Antonio Express-News

Organizations3

Newspapers1

REdgardo Baez0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Joaquin CastroOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$397.4K

Disburse

$365.7K

Cash on hand

$170.4K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Edgardo BaezOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$32.5K

Disburse

$27.1K

Cash on hand

$5.4K

Debts

$15.1K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks