Races · house · 2026 · TX
house · open seat
Joaquin Castro vs Edgardo Baez
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Lean R · model 95% D
lean-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +22.8
80% CI: D +5.3 → D +40.3 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +22.8
80% CI D +5.3 → D +40.3
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Feb 6 | -2.0 | +18.0 | -20.0 |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Mar 7 | -2.0 | +18.0 | -20.0 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Sep 18 | -2.0 | +18.0 | -20.0 |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll 2 months ago (3/11/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
- 5/6/2026 Lean R R+2.0 via polls held 2d
- 5/4/2026 Likely D via pvi