Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Texas house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+25) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+38.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.2 (10th pctile) to R+22.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement90
18.0pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution90 / 100
Measured18.0pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +38.1
80% CI: R +54.2 → R +22.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +56.1
80% CI R +75.7 → R +39.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 6¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-19 House seat?” | 6¢ | 94¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Tom Sell8 · 100%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTom Sell8 endorsers
Most notable · Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN–08 (2015–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Jake Ellzey · TX-06 (2021–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Larry Combest · former TX-19 (1985–2003)
- Pete Sessions · TX-17 (1997–2019, 2021–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-28Tom SellH6TX19206 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$670.8K
Debts
$1.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.3M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.3M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN MISSION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $579.0K | 44% | for Tom Sell |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $426.3K | 32% | for Tom Sell |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $255.8K | 19% | for Tom Sell |
| TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND other · boosts R
| R | $40.0K | 3% | for Tom Sell |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-28
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks