Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Texas house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+21) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+33.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+17.5 (10th pctile) to D+49.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 89/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
89
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement33
6.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution33 / 100
Measured6.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +33.6
80% CI: D +17.5 → D +49.7 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +40.2
80% CI D +34.5 → D +43.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.7
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-18 House seat?” | 93¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet5
Endorsements tracked
Christian Menefee5 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChristian Menefee5 endorsers
Most notable · Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- Lauren Ashley Simmons · state representative from the 146th district (2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Houston Chronicle
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-24Christian MenefeeH6TX18232 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$318.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$7.1M
D side
$7.1M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Protect Progress
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Progress super pac · boosts D
| D | $6.5M | 92% | for Christian Menefee |
| Leaders We Deserve super pac · boosts D
| D | $286.6K | 4% | for Christian Menefee |
| Project 218 other · boosts D
| D | $200.0K | 3% | for Christian Menefee |
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $100.0K | 1% | for Christian Menefee |
| Texas Organizing Project PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $7.0K | 0% | for Christian Menefee |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-24
Endorsements22 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks