Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Casey Shepard vs Pete Sessions
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.3 (10th pctile) to R+9.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.2
80% CI: R +41.3 → R +9.1 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.1
80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 16¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat?” | 16¢ | 81¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
3
Endorsements tracked
Casey Shepard1 · 25%
Pete Sessions3 · 75%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RPete Sessions3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
DCasey Shepard1 endorser
Most notable · Austin American-Statesman
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Austin American-Statesman
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11Pete SessionsH2TX03126 ↗
Receipts
$901.4K
Disburse
$454.3K
Cash on hand
$888.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Casey Shepard
Receipts
$8.0K
Disburse
$5.6K
Cash on hand
$2.4K
Debts
$5.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$53.71
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$53.71 · 100%
Top spender
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.71 | 100% | for Pete Sessions |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks