Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Angela Rodriguez Prilliman vs Craig Goldman
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.3 (10th pctile) to R+7.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.2
80% CI: R +39.3 → R +7.1 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 11¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-12 House seat?” | 11¢ | 90¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet4
Endorsements tracked
Angela Rodriguez Prilliman0 · 0%
Craig Goldman4 · 100%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RCraig Goldman4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Republican Jewish Coalition
DAngela Rodriguez Prilliman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11Craig GoldmanH4TX12065 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$659.7K
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$53.71
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$53.71 · 100%
Top spender
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.71 | 100% | for Craig Goldman |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks