Races · house · 2026 · Tennessee
house · open seat
Vincent Dixie vs Matt Van Epps
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.6 (10th pctile) to R+5.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.5
80% CI: R +37.6 → R +5.4 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 13¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?” | 13¢ | 85¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Vincent Dixie0 · 0%
Matt Van Epps1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMatt Van Epps1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DVincent Dixie0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJonathan Thorp0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-18Matt Van EppsH6TN07161 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$135.2K
Debts
$148.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Vincent DixieH6TN07229 ↗
Receipts
$178.4K
Disburse
$177.2K
Cash on hand
$1.2K
Debts
$11.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jonathan ThorpH6TN07153 ↗
Receipts
$20.1K
Disburse
$26.3K
Cash on hand
$-6,238.11
Debts
$58.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.2M
D side
$1.8M · 42%
R side
$2.4M · 58%
Top spender
MAGA INC.
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $843.9K | 20% | for Matt Van Epps |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $766.2K | 18% | against Matt Van Epps |
| HMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $723.6K | 17% | against Matt Van Epps |
| American Liberty Foundation PAC other · boosts R
| R | $383.8K | 9% | for Matt Van Epps |
| American Patriots PAC other · boosts R
| R | $329.8K | 8% | for Matt Van Epps |
| United We Succeed pac · boosts D
| D | $100.0K | 2% | for Vincent Dixie |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-18
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks