Races · house · 2026 · South Dakota

house · open seat

South Dakota house

← South Carolina house Tennessee house →

Safe RR +30.2 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% (D)
99% (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Republican99% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +30.2
80% CIR+46.3 → R+14.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +30.2 · 80% CI R+46.3 → R+14.2 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 4¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.3 (10th pctile) to R+14.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +30.2

80% CI: R +46.3 → R +14.2 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +34.8

80% CI R +42.9 → R +30.5

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +18.3

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 4¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the SD-AL House seat?”	4¢	94¢	-1¢	—	+0

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$149.7K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$149.7K · 100%

Top spender

SOUTH DAKOTA VALUES…

For / against split

For Jackley $149.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
SOUTH DAKOTA VALUES PAC	R	$84.1K	56%	for Marty Jackley
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.	R	$65.6K	44%	for Marty Jackley

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-19

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks