Races · house · 2026 · SD
house · open seat

South Dakota house

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Safe R — · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +31.9
80% CI: R +49.4 → R +14.4 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +31.9
80% CI R +49.4 → R +14.4
CV MAE 13.66
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/4/2026 Safe R via pvi

In the news

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