Races · house · 2026 · South Carolina
house · open seat
South Carolina house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.8 (10th pctile) to R+7.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.7
80% CI: R +39.8 → R +7.6 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.6 → D +0.3
CV MAE 3.46
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the SC-04 House seat?” | 8¢ | 92¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetRWilliam Timmons0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-04William TimmonsH8SC04250 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$790.3K
Cash on hand
$661.4K
Debts
$731.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$487.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$487.3K · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $487.3K | 100% | for William Timmons |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
20 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
20 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles20
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.10
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.10
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 10%
Neutral 90%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets10%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets0%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Who Is Ahead in the South Carolina Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
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South Carolina U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
South Carolina Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
W
Trump backs both Evette and Wilson in South Carolina governor runoff after split primary battle
W
2026 South Carolina primary runoffs: What voters need to know for Tuesday, June 23
W
South Carolina primary election runoff: Voter guide on what you need to know
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GOP primary for South Carolina attorney general set for runoff
S
Six SFLAction Pro-Life Champions Advance to the General Election in South Carolina & Nevada — SFL Action
W
What time do polls close in South Carolina? What voters need to know on Primary Election Day
S
Updates and timeline: South Carolina's primary election
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage20 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks