Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Pennsylvania house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 54% D · market gap 16pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 70%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.8 (10th pctile) to D+17.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 54% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 84/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 54%, market says 70% — 16pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
84
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement22
4.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution22 / 100
Measured4.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.3
80% CI: R +14.8 → D +17.4 · win prob 54%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +3.1
80% CI R +17.6 → D +1.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.3
80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1
CV MAE 1.87
consensusMarket-implied
D +5.4
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 41 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet41
Endorsements tracked
Bob Brooks41 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total41
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DBob Brooks41 endorsers
Most notable · Matt Bradford · House majority leader from HD-70 (2009–present)
Elected officials29
Federal 15State 13Local 1
Elected officials · 29
- Matt Bradford · House majority leader from HD-70 (2009–present)
- Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Josh Shapiro · governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Steve Santarsiero · state senator from the 10th district (2019–present)
- Vincent Hughes · state senator from the 7th district (1994–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Chrissy Houlahan · PA-06 (2019–present)
- Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017–present)
- Madeleine Dean · PA-04 (2019–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Val Hoyle · OR-04 (2023–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Bridget Malloy Kosierowski · state representative from the 144th district (2019–present)
- Chris Coons · Delaware (2010–present)
- Chris Murphy · Connecticut (2013–present)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Jared Solomon · state representative from the 202nd district (2017–present)
- Jennifer O'Mara · state representative from the 165th district (2019–present)
- Mary Isaacson · state representative from the 175th district (2019–present)
- Matthew Tuerk · mayor of Allentown (2022–present)
- Michael Schlossberg · state representative from the 132nd district (2013–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Peter Schweyer · state representative from the 134th district (2015–present)
- Robert Merski · state representative from the 2nd district (2019–present)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
- Tarik Khan · state representative from the 194th district (2023–present)
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- Blue Dog · PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- End Citizens United
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 22
- National Nurses United
- Our Revolution
- Pennsylvania Conference of Teamsters
- Service Employees International Union · Pennsylvania State Council
- Steamfitters · Local 420
- Teamsters · Local 773
- Working Families Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-02Bob BrooksH6PA07188 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$918.8K
Cash on hand
$252.4K
Debts
$15.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.6M
D side
$2.6M · 100%
R side
$8.8K · 0%
Top spender
Stronger Together PA
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger Together PA super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.7M | 66% | for Bob Brooks |
| JOBS AND DEMOCRACY PAC other · boosts D
| D | $263.3K | 10% | for Bob Brooks |
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $140.0K | 5% | for Bob Brooks |
| Medicare For All other · boosts D
| D | $100.0K | 4% | for Bob Brooks |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-02
Endorsements161 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks