Races · house · 2026 · PA
house · open seat

Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick

← PA house PA house →
Tilt R R +1.0 · 176 days to election · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 49d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 63% R

tilt-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +4.8
80% CI: R +22.3 → D +12.8 · win prob 37%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used5
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +4.8
80% CI R +22.3 → D +12.8
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 5 results

5 of 5 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/22/2026Global Strategy Group1.00—400±4.9LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+2
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Brian Fitzpatrick 48.0 · Bob Harvie 42.0pollarch
11/19/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)549±4.1RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned172d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 172d old
    Poll was fielded 172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Scott Perry 44.0 · Janelle Stelson 48.0pollarch
10/11/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)585±4.1LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned211d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 211d old
    Poll was fielded 211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Brian Fitzpatrick 41.0 · Bob Harvie 41.0pollarch
8/28/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)615—unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned255d old+2
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 255d old
    Poll was fielded 255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Rob Bresnahan 43.0 · Paige Cognetti 45.0pollarch
7/11/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)559—unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned303d old+2
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 303d old
    Poll was fielded 303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Scott Perry 43.0 · Janelle Stelson 46.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Sep 11 -1.0 0.0 -1.0
Inside Elections Tossup Sep 11 -1.0 0.0 -1.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup Apr 10 -1.0 0.0 -1.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 7 weeks ago (3/22/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Tilt R R+1.0 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Tossup via pvi

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