Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Pennsylvania house

← Pennsylvania house Pennsylvania house →

Safe DD +27.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Scanlon (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Mary Gay Scanlon99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +27.5
80% CID+11.4 → D+43.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +27.5 · 80% CI D+11.4 → D+43.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+15) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.4 (10th pctile) to D+43.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +27.5

80% CI: D +11.4 → D +43.6 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +28.1

80% CI D +26.2 → D +41.8

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +0.3

80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1

CV MAE 1.87

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat?”	94¢	6¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

2Scanlon · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Mary Gay Scanlon2 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DMary Gay Scanlon2 endorsers

Most notable · J Street

Organizations2

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09

Mary Gay ScanlonH8PA07200 ↗

Receipts

$839.0K

Disburse

$756.6K

Cash on hand

$400.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$105.16

D side

$105.16 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

API PA VOTES

For / against split

For Scanlon $105.16

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
API PA VOTES	D	$95.16	90%	for Mary Gay Scanlon
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	10%	for Mary Gay Scanlon

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Tossupmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09

Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks