Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Madeleine Dean vs Ismaine Ayouaz
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 95% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.7 (10th pctile) to D+36.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.8
80% CI: D +4.7 → D +36.9 · win prob 95%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +17.2
80% CI D +11.2 → D +23.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.3
80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1
CV MAE 1.87
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat?” | 95¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet4
Endorsements tracked
Madeleine Dean4 · 100%
Ismaine Ayouaz0 · 0%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMadeleine Dean4 endorsers
Most notable · Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007–2012)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Giffords
- J Street
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007–2012)
RIsmaine Ayouaz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09Madeleine DeanH8PA04116 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$922.8K
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ismaine Ayouaz
Receipts
$0
Disburse
$99
Cash on hand
$-99
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$105.16
D side
$105.16 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
API PA VOTES
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| API PA VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $95.16 | 90% | for Madeleine Dean |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 10% | for Madeleine Dean |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
4 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
4 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles4
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.50
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.50
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 50%
Neutral 50%
50% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets50%
Neutral50%
R-leaning outlets0%
50% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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M
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N
Pennsylvania Third Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
A
Pennsylvania U.S. House Primary Election Live Results 2026
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage4 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks