Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Justin Wagner vs Mike Kelly

← Pennsylvania house Pennsylvania house →

Safe RR +22.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
4% Wagner (D)
96% Kelly (R)
Win probability
Justin Wagner4% (D)
Mike Kelly96% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +22.6
80% CIR+38.6 → R+6.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +22.6 · 80% CI R+38.6 → R+6.5 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 14¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.6 (10th pctile) to R+6.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +22.6

80% CI: R +38.6 → R +6.5 · win prob 4%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +26.7

80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +0.3

80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1

CV MAE 1.87

consensusMarket-implied

R +10.3

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?”	14¢	85¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

1Wagner · 50%
Kelly · 50%1
Endorsements tracked
Justin Wagner1 · 50%
Mike Kelly1 · 50%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RMike Kelly1 endorser

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

DJustin Wagner1 endorser

Most notable · Track AIPAC

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Mike KellyOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$886.3K

Disburse

$739.9K

Cash on hand

$1.2M

Debts

$90.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Justin WagnerOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$31.5K

Disburse

$12.5K

Cash on hand

$24.0K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.