Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Pennsylvania house

← Pennsylvania house Pennsylvania house →

Safe RR +32.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% (D)
99% Thompson (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Glenn Thompson99% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +32.8
80% CIR+48.9 → R+16.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +32.8 · 80% CI R+48.9 → R+16.7 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 6¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+48.9 (10th pctile) to R+16.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +32.8

80% CI: R +48.9 → R +16.7 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +40.6

80% CI R +44.9 → R +32.6

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +0.3

80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1

CV MAE 1.87

consensusMarket-implied

R +15.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 6¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the PA-15 House seat?”	6¢	94¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

Thompson · 100%1
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Glenn Thompson1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RGlenn Thompson1 endorser

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-04-30

Glenn ThompsonH8PA05071 ↗

Receipts

$1.6M

Disburse

$1.7M

Cash on hand

$738.8K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.8K

D side

$1.8K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

MAHA PAC

For / against split

Against Thompson $1.8K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
MAHA PAC	D	$1.8K	100%	against Glenn Thompson

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 3, 2026Tossupmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-04-30

Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks