Races · house · 2026 · PA

house · open seat

Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick

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Tilt R R +1.0 · 176 days to election · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 49d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 100% R

tilt-r · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +47.7

80% CI: R +65.2 → R +30.1 · win prob 0%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	5
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +47.7

80% CI R +65.2 → R +30.1

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 5 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:5 of 5 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
3/22/2026	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	400	±4.9	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Fitzpatrick 48.0 · Bob Harvie 42.0	poll arch
11/19/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	549	±4.1	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned172d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 172d old Poll was fielded 172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Perry 44.0 · Janelle Stelson 48.0	poll arch
10/11/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	585	±4.1	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned211d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 211d old Poll was fielded 211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Brian Fitzpatrick 41.0 · Bob Harvie 41.0	poll arch
8/28/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	615	—	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned255d old+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 255d old Poll was fielded 255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Bresnahan 43.0 · Paige Cognetti 45.0	poll arch
7/11/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	—	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned303d old+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 303d old Poll was fielded 303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Perry 43.0 · Janelle Stelson 46.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Sep 11	-1.0	-18.0	+17.0
Inside Elections	Safe R	Sep 11	-1.0	-18.0	+17.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Apr 10	-1.0	-18.0	+17.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 7 weeks ago (3/22/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)

5/6/2026 Tilt R R+1.0 via polls held 2d
5/4/2026 Safe R via pvi