Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Summer Lee vs James Hayes
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 96% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+21.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.7 (10th pctile) to D+37.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +21.8
80% CI: D +5.7 → D +37.9 · win prob 96%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +20.0
80% CI D +13.0 → D +24.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.3
80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1
CV MAE 1.87
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the PA-12 House seat?” | 94¢ | 3¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Summer Lee10 · 100%
James Hayes0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSummer Lee10 endorsers
Most notable · End Citizens United
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- End Citizens United
- Justice Democrats
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Education Association
- PAL PAC
- Peace Action
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Track AIPAC
- Working Families Party · amilies Party
RJames Hayes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-02Summer LeeH2PA18200 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$668.9K
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
James Hayes
Receipts
$27.1K
Disburse
$16.2K
Cash on hand
$11.6K
Debts
$12.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$33.7K
D side
$33.7K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Working Families Pa…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working Families Party PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $20.8K | 62% | for Summer Lee |
| Solidarity Victory PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $10.3K | 30% | for Summer Lee |
| STRAIGHT AHEAD ORGANIZATION other · boosts D
| D | $2.5K | 7% | for Summer Lee |
| API PA VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $95.16 | 0% | for Summer Lee |
| THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $37.5 | 0% | for Summer Lee |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-02
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks