Races · house · 2026 · Oregon
house · open seat
Andrea Salinas vs David Russ
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 92% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.6 (10th pctile) to D+33.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.6
80% CI: D +1.6 → D +33.8 · win prob 92%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.6
80% CI D +7.8 → D +23.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the OR-06 House seat?” | 93¢ | 4¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 10 candidates with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Andrea Salinas10 · 100%
David Russ0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAndrea Salinas10 endorsers
Most notable · Center for Freethought Equality
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- Center for Freethought Equality
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Marion County · Democratic Party
- Oregon AFL-CIO
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
RDavid Russ0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSuzanne Bonamici0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBarbara Kahl0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DChris Beck0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RCliff Bentz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMaxine Dexter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMonique DeSpain0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DVal Hoyle0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPatti Adair0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJanelle Bynum0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-10-07Andrea SalinasH2OR06066 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$831.9K
Cash on hand
$589.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
David Russ
Receipts
$5.0K
Disburse
$14.1K
Cash on hand
$5.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$243
D side
$243 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $243 | 100% | for Andrea Salinas |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.38 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift −0.38 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-10-07
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks