Races · house · 2026 · Oregon
house · open seat
Janelle Bynum vs Patti Adair
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 25d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 83% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 89%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.1 (10th pctile) to D+28.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 83% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.0
80% CI: R +4.1 → D +28.1 · win prob 83%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +0.1
80% CI R +28.5 → D +11.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.1
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet13
1
Endorsements tracked
Janelle Bynum13 · 93%
Patti Adair1 · 7%
Total14
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJanelle Bynum13 endorsers
Most notable · Willamette Week · (primary only)
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- 314 Action
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · BOLD PAC
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Vote Mama
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Willamette Week · (primary only)
RPatti Adair1 endorser
Most notable · Willamette Week · (primary only)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Willamette Week · (primary only)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-10Janelle BynumH4OR05304 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$934.1K
Cash on hand
$2.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Patti Adair
Receipts
$300.5K
Disburse
$202.6K
Cash on hand
$97.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$60.6K
D side
$60.6K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
LCV Victory Fund
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCV Victory Fund other · boosts D
| D | $60.4K | 100% | for Janelle Bynum |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $125.33 | 0% | for Janelle Bynum |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D2
Safe D · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-10
Endorsements14 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks