Races · house · 2026 · OR
house · open seat
Janelle Bynum vs Patti Adair
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Lean D · model 75% D
lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +9.5
80% CI: R +8.0 → D +27.0 · win prob 75%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +9.5
80% CI R +8.0 → D +27.0
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely D | Sep 26 | — | +9.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Dec 5 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | Sep 18 | — | +9.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/4/2026 Lean D via pvi
In the news
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Letters to the Editor , Week of May 14 - The Sourcebendsource.com · 1d ago -
Fast food and $1 million for water : U . S . Rep . Bynum busy blitz through Central Oregonbendbulletin.com · 4d ago -
- At the Races : A reprieve for Republicans ?rollcall.com · 10d ago
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WW May 2026 Endorsements : Congresswweek.com · 11d ago
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