Races · house · 2026 · Oregon
house · open seat
Val Hoyle vs Monique DeSpain
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 92% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.5 (10th pctile) to D+33.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.6
80% CI: D +1.5 → D +33.6 · win prob 92%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.6
80% CI D +7.8 → D +23.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the OR-04 House seat?” | 93¢ | 7¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Val Hoyle8 · 100%
Monique DeSpain0 · 0%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DVal Hoyle8 endorsers
Most notable · Christopher Street Project
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Christopher Street Project
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · BOLD PAC
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Oregon AFL-CIO
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- United Food and Commercial Workers · 555
RMonique DeSpain0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-12Val HoyleH2OR04095 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$643.3K
Cash on hand
$492.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Monique DeSpain
Receipts
$485.8K
Disburse
$238.8K
Cash on hand
$247.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$292.5K
D side
$292.5K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
THINK BIG
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THINK BIG super pac · boosts D
| D | $292.4K | 100% | for Val Hoyle |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $53.33 | 0% | for Val Hoyle |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.25
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.25
Week-over-weekshift −0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 25%
Neutral 75%
25% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets25%
Neutral75%
R-leaning outlets0%
25% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-12
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks