Races · house · 2026 · Oklahoma
house · open seat
John Croisant vs Mark Tedford
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.0 (10th pctile) to R+7.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.0
80% CI: R +40.0 → R +7.9 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the OK-01 House seat?” | 8¢ | 93¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
John Croisant0 · 0%
Mark Tedford1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMark Tedford1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DJohn Croisant0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-15Mark TedfordH6OK01235 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$932.5K
Cash on hand
$515.7K
Debts
$1.1M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
John Croisant
Receipts
$124.2K
Disburse
$83.8K
Cash on hand
$40.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$95.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$95.0K · 100%
Top spender
HEARTLAND VICTORY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEARTLAND VICTORY PAC other · boosts R
| R | $95.0K | 100% | for Mark Tedford |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 12%
Neutral 88%
12% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets12%
Neutral88%
R-leaning outlets0%
12% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Oklahoma House District 3 Primary Election Live Results 2026
N
Oklahoma House District 1 Primary Election Live Results 2026
O
Oklahoma House Speaker Kyle Hilbert's take on primary elections is off: The system is broken
J
Election results: Oklahoma decides U.S. Senate and U.S. House nominees
O
Oklahoma voters say civic duty, minimum wage propelled them to polls
O
Tedford, Lahmeyer will head to runoff in Republican House primary
T
Who won the June 16 primaries for Tulsa’s Oklahoma House and Senate seats?
O
Recap: See election results for Oklahoma governor, SQ 832, more
K
Oklahoma 2026 Primary Election Results: US House of Representatives races
2
Live Results: Oklahoma and DC Primaries, Georgia and Alabama Primary Runoffs
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-15
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks