Races · house · 2026 · Ohio
house · open seat
Madaris Grant vs Warren Davidson
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.2 (10th pctile) to R+9.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.1
80% CI: R +41.2 → R +9.0 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +19.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 10¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the OH-08 House seat?” | 10¢ | 88¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Madaris Grant0 · 0%
Warren Davidson1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RWarren Davidson1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DMadaris Grant0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Warren Davidson
Receipts
$505.5K
Disburse
$451.2K
Cash on hand
$449.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Madaris Grant
Receipts
$29.9K
Disburse
$32.4K
Cash on hand
$-2,481.07
Debts
$250
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
4 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
4 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles4
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.25
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.25
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 50%
Neutral 25%
R 25%
75% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets50%
Neutral25%
R-leaning outlets25%
75% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage4 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks