Races · house · 2026 · Ohio
house · open seat
Brian Poindexter vs Max Miller
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 78% R
Polling average rates this race Tilt R (R+1.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.9 (10th pctile) to D+6.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 78% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 92/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
92
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement47
9.4pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution47 / 100
Measured9.4pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.8
80% CI: R +25.9 → D +6.3 · win prob 22%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +10.4
80% CI R +11.3 → R +8.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.0
80% CI R +5.7 → D +3.7
CV MAE 3.65
consensusMarket-implied
R +2.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 40¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 3 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 40% · polls 43%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?” | 40¢ | 60¢ | +4¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19 | GBAO+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +9.3d lean | 43 · 44 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Brian Poindexter0 · 0%
Max Miller2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMax Miller2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Republican Jewish Coalition
DBrian Poindexter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-27Brian PoindexterH6OH07168 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Max Miller
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$725.9K
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$980.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$714.6K
D side
$714.6K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
JOBS AND DEMOCRACY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOBS AND DEMOCRACY PAC other · boosts D
| D | $512.5K | 72% | for Brian Poindexter |
| BDA PAC other · boosts D
| D | $198.0K | 28% | for Brian Poindexter |
| Working Families Party PAC other · boosts D
| D | $4.1K | 1% | for Brian Poindexter |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R4
Likely R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
35 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
35 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles35
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.20
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.24 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.20
Week-over-weekshift −0.24 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 74%
R 3%
26% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral74%
R-leaning outlets3%
26% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Populism politics are pressuring the Ohio Statehouse ahead of November election
O
Ohio Dems outraise Republicans in downballot statewide offices but still far behind in cash on hand
W
Nancy L. Schulz, Canfield, Ohio
N
Ohio Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
AARP Poll Shows Ramaswamy, Husted Trailing Democrats in Ohio
C
Ohio Equal Rights Will Try to Get Two Amendments on 2027 Ballot
S
Ohio mail-in ballots unaffected by US Supreme Court ruling
N
Supreme Court rules mail-in ballots can still count if received after election night. What it means for Ohio.
O
Will Ohio Republicans override Gov. DeWine’s absentee ballot voter photo ID veto?
M
Sherrod Brown leads Ohio Senate race as GOP shifts tactics
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-27
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage35 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks