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Races · house · 2026 · Ohio
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house · open seat

Daniel Burket vs Bob Latta

← Ohio houseOhio house →
Safe RR +27.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Burket (D)
99% Latta (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +27.6 · 80% CI R+43.6 → R+11.5 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 8¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
10
articles · new
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.6 (10th pctile) to R+11.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.6
80% CI: R +43.6 → R +11.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.1
80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.0
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the OH-05 House seat?”
8¢92¢-1¢—+0

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Latta · 100%1
RBob Latta1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
DDaniel Burket0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Daniel BurketOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$7.6K
Disburse
$7.6K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

In the news

10 shown · last 30d · Google News
News volume · 30d
10 articles · building history
Net favorability
+0.20
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.34 wk
Coverage tilt
D 30%
Neutral 60%
R 10%
40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage10 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks