Races · house · 2026 · Ohio

house · open seat

Ohio house

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Safe RR +21.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
4% (D)
96% Joyce (R)
Win probability
Democrat4% (D)
David Joyce96% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +21.9
80% CIR+38.0 → R+5.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +21.9 · 80% CI R+38.0 → R+5.8 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 13¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.0 (10th pctile) to R+5.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +21.9

80% CI: R +38.0 → R +5.8 · win prob 4%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +23.1

80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.5

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +10.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 13¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

5¢10¢15¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat?”	13¢	86¢	-1¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

Joyce · 100%2
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
David Joyce2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RDavid Joyce2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-04-15

David JoyceH2OH14064 ↗

Receipts

$1.1M

Disburse

$924.6K

Cash on hand

$2.9M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$12.0K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$12.0K · 100%

Top spender

PRIVATE PROPERTY RI…

For / against split

For Joyce $12.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS PAC	R	$12.0K	100%	for David Joyce

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.