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Races · house · 2026 · Ohio
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Emilia Sykes vs Margaret Briem

← Ohio houseOhio house →
Likely DD +8.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
76% Sykes (D)
24% Briem (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +8.8 · 80% CI R+7.3 → D+24.9 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 87¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 76% D · market gap 11pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 87%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.3 (10th pctile) to D+24.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 76% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 76%, market says 87% — 11pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.8
80% CI: R +7.3 → D +24.9 · win prob 76%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.5
80% CI R +2.0 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.6
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 87¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?”
87¢13¢+0¢—+0
Kalshi
“OH-13 House winner?”
87¢10¢+0¢$0K+0

Endorsements · 30 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
30Sykes · 100%
DEmilia Sykes30 endorsers
Most notable · Bob Latta · OH-05 (2007–present)
Other15
Organizations13
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 1Local 1
RMargaret Briem0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ISandeep Dixit0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-10
Emilia SykesH2OH13264 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sandeep DixitOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$46.4K
Disburse
$47.9K
Cash on hand
$-7,084.28
Debts
$12.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Margaret BriemOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$7.7K
Disburse
$7.7K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$261.99
D side
$261.99 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
For / against split
For Sykes $261.99
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$261.99100%for Emilia Sykes

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D2
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 5, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-10
Endorsements42 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks