Races · house · 2026 · Ohio
house · open seat
Kristina Knickerbocker vs Mike Turner
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 85% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.2 (10th pctile) to D+3.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 85% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · tilt-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.1
80% CI: R +29.2 → D +3.0 · win prob 15%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +8.2
80% CI R +18.4 → R +2.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +6.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 26¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?” | 26¢ | 74¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
2
Endorsements tracked
Kristina Knickerbocker2 · 50%
Mike Turner2 · 50%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMike Turner2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
DKristina Knickerbocker2 endorsers
Most notable · EMILYs List
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Mike Turner
Receipts
$755.1K
Disburse
$627.5K
Cash on hand
$558.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kristina Knickerbocker
Receipts
$146.5K
Disburse
$112.1K
Cash on hand
$34.4K
Debts
$59.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
31 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
31 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles31
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.23
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.27 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.23
Week-over-weekshift −0.27 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 26%
Neutral 71%
R 3%
29% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets26%
Neutral71%
R-leaning outlets3%
29% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Populism politics are pressuring the Ohio Statehouse ahead of November election
O
Ohio Dems outraise Republicans in downballot statewide offices but still far behind in cash on hand
N
Ohio Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
C
Ohio Equal Rights Will Try to Get Two Amendments on 2027 Ballot
T
AARP Poll Shows Ramaswamy, Husted Trailing Democrats in Ohio
O
Will Ohio Republicans override Gov. DeWine’s absentee ballot voter photo ID veto?
N
Sherrod Brown Chances of Ousting GOP’s Jon Husted in Ohio Senate Race—Polls
T
DeWine vetoes bill requiring photo ID for Ohio absentee ballots, 6 months after signing other voting restrictions
W
Ohio governor vetoes bill requiring photo ID for absentee ballots
T
Ohio Federation of Teachers endorses Aaron Jones for Ohio House District 88
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage31 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks