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Races · house · 2026 · Ohio
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Greg Landsman vs Eric Conroy

← New York houseOhio house →
Likely DD +7.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
72% Landsman (D)
28% Conroy (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +7.3 · 80% CI R+8.8 → D+23.4 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.9%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 84¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 72% D · market gap 16pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 88%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.8 (10th pctile) to D+23.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 72% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 72%, market says 88% — 16pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.3
80% CI: R +8.8 → D +23.4 · win prob 72%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.7 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.2
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 84¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?”
80¢18¢+1¢—-4
Kalshi
“OH-01 House winner?”
88¢11¢+1¢$0K+4
Polymarket sits 4¢ below consensus.

Endorsements · 53 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
38Landsman · 72%
Conroy · 28%15
DGreg Landsman38 endorsers
Most notable · Ted Strickland · former governor of Ohio (2007–2011)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 2Local 2
Organizations12
Other12
REric Conroy15 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 14State 0Local 0
Organizations1
LJohn Hancock0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-04
Eric ConroyH6OH01138 ↗
Receipts
$879.0K
Disburse
$650.2K
Cash on hand
$228.8K
Debts
$301.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Greg LandsmanH2OH01194 ↗
Receipts
$3.6M
Disburse
$885.8K
Cash on hand
$2.9M
Debts
$2.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
John HancockOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.3K
Disburse
$0
Cash on hand
$1.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$278.1K
D side
$90 · 0%
R side
$278.0K · 100%
Top spender
RED BRIDGE LEADERSH…
For / against split
For Landsman $90
For Conroy $278.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
RED BRIDGE LEADERSHIP PACR$278.0K100%for Eric Conroy
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$900%for Greg Landsman

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-04
Endorsements53 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks