Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
Yvette Clarke vs Jean Depalis
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+22) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+35.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+19.1 (10th pctile) to D+51.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +35.2
80% CI: D +19.1 → D +51.3 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +44.9
80% CI D +34.5 → D +54.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +17.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 96¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-09 House seat?” | 96¢ | 6¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 11 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet11
Endorsements tracked
Yvette Clarke11 · 100%
Jean Depalis0 · 0%
Total11
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DYvette Clarke11 endorsers
Most notable · AFL-CIO · k State AFL-CIO
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- AFL-CIO · k State AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- District Council 37
- J Street PAC
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- NYC District Council of Carpenters
- New York City Central Labor Council
- New York State United Teachers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
RJean Depalis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-16Yvette ClarkeH4NY11138 ↗
Receipts
$893.9K
Disburse
$940.6K
Cash on hand
$63.3K
Debts
$115.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jean Depalis
Receipts
$12.4K
Disburse
$8.3K
Cash on hand
$1.1K
Debts
$3.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$289.7K
D side
$289.7K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
THINK BIG
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THINK BIG other · boosts D
| D | $289.7K | 100% | for Yvette Clarke |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-16
Endorsements11 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks