Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 93% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.7 (10th pctile) to D+34.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.8
80% CI: D +2.7 → D +34.9 · win prob 93%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.6
80% CI D +7.8 → D +23.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-06 House seat?” | 93¢ | 7¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet30
Endorsements tracked
Grace Meng30 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total30
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DGrace Meng30 endorsers
Most notable · John Liu · state senator from the 16th district (2019–present)
Organizations27
Organizations · 27
- 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East
- AFL-CIO · k State AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Association of Letter Carriers · Letter Carriers
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Congressional Progressive Caucus
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- District Council 37
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers · Local 28
- Jim Owles Liberal Democratic Club
- LIUNA
- Laborers' International Union of North America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- N.Y.C. District Council of Carpenters
- NYC District Council of Carpenters
- National Association of Letter Carriers · Local 294
- New York City Central Labor Council
- New York State Nurses Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Stonewall Democratic Club of New York
- Stonewall Democrats · of New York
- UNITE HERE · Local 100
- UNITE HERE Local 100
- Vote Mama
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 3
- John Liu · state senator from the 16th district (2019–present)
- Andy Kim · New Jersey (2024–present)
- Shekar Krishnan · New York City councilmember from the 25th district (2022–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Grace MengH2NY06116 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$1.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Grace Meng |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.38
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.71 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.38
Week-over-weekshift +0.71 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 46%
Neutral 46%
R 8%
54% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets46%
Neutral46%
R-leaning outlets8%
54% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
New York 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
New York 10th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Only one in five New Yorkers believe the Dem redistricting push will be good for the state: poll
N
New York 12th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
These Are the House Districts to Watch in New York This Primary Season
M
Micah Lasher defeats Jack Schlossberg, other rivals in Democratic primary for New York House seat
T
Mamdani-backed Lander ousts Goldman in New York House primary
F
New York primary: US House races to keep an eye on
N
Plenty of Interest, but Fairly Little Polling in Key New York Races
T
A Kennedy, a ‘nerd’, an ex-Republican and a tech target: New York races toward a House seat
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements37 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks