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Races · house · 2026 · New York
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Kiana Bierria-Anderson vs Dennis McGrath

← New York houseNew York house →
Likely DD +5.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
67% Bierria-Anderson (D)
33% McGrath (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +5.7 · 80% CI R+10.4 → D+21.8 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.9%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 80¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 16d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 67% D · market gap 12pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 80%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.4 (10th pctile) to D+21.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 67% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 67%, market says 80% — 13pp gap.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.7
80% CI: R +10.4 → D +21.8 · win prob 67%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.4
80% CI R +14.1 → D +13.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.6
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 80¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?”
80¢18¢-2¢—-0
Kalshi
“NY-04 House winner?”
80¢14¢-1¢$0K+0
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling average
VoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Feb 17, 2026 · latest Impact Research
Dem
VoteHub46.0%
no matching candidate in our average
Rep
VoteHub41.0%
no matching candidate in our average

VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Feb 17, 2026): Dem 46.0%, Rep 41.0%.

Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
1Bierria-Anderson · 100%
DKiana Bierria-Anderson1 endorser
Most notable · Hofstra University · College Democrats
Organizations1
RDennis McGrath0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-01
Kiana Bierria-AndersonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$26.9K
Disburse
$18.3K
Cash on hand
$8.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dennis McGrathOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$10.0K
Disburse
$8.9K
Cash on hand
$1.1K
Debts
$10.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$74.4K
D side
$74.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Gillen $74.4K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 20, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 18, 2026Lean Dmodel
Jun 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 5, 2026Lean Dmodel
+ 1 earlier change
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-01
Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks