Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
Tom Suozzi vs Greg Hach
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 65% D · market gap 17pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 82%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.4 (10th pctile) to D+20.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 65% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 65%, market says 82% — 17pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.7
80% CI: R +11.4 → D +20.8 · win prob 65%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.5
80% CI R +2.0 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +8.3
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet22
8
Endorsements tracked
Tom Suozzi22 · 73%
Greg Hach8 · 27%
Total30
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DTom Suozzi22 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- AIPAC
- Brady Campaign
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- NYC District Council of Carpenters
- Nassau County · Republican Party
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- WelcomePAC
Other5
Other · 5
- Tom Emmer · House Majority Whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Bruce Blakeman · Nassau County Executive (2022–present) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
- Showing Up for Racial Justice
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike LiPetri · former state assemblyman from the 9th district (2019–2021), candidate for the 2nd district in 2020, and nominee for this district in 2024
RGreg Hach8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Other4
Other · 4
- Tom Emmer · House Majority Whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Bruce Blakeman · Nassau County Executive (2022–present) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Rudy Giuliani · former mayor of New York City (1994–2001)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Conservative Party of New York State
- Nassau County · Republican Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-09-11Tom SuozziH6NY03247 ↗
Receipts
$5.0M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$5.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Greg Hach
Receipts
$526.9K
Disburse
$477.7K
Cash on hand
$58.4K
Debts
$710.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.4K
D side
$1.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
ACTIVATE AMERICA
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.3K | 92% | for Tom Suozzi |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $53.33 | 4% | for Tom Suozzi |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $30.92 | 2% | for Tom Suozzi |
| NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $27.5 | 2% | for Tom Suozzi |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-09-11
Endorsements30 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks