Races · house · 2026 · New York

house · open seat

New York house

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Safe DD +22.1 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
96% Morelle (D)
4% (R)
Win probability
Joseph Morelle96% (D)
Republican4% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +22.1
80% CID+6.0 → D+38.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +22.1 · 80% CI D+6.0 → D+38.2 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.9%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.0 (10th pctile) to D+38.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +22.1

80% CI: D +6.0 → D +38.2 · win prob 96%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +20.0

80% CI D +13.0 → D +24.8

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +4.1

80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5

CV MAE 3.58

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NY-25 House seat?”	94¢	3¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 9 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

9Morelle · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Joseph Morelle9 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJoseph Morelle9 endorsers

Most notable · AFL-CIO · k State AFL-CIO

Organizations9

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-18

Joseph MorelleH8NY25105 ↗

Receipts

$1.5M

Disburse

$1.6M

Cash on hand

$352.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$503.9K

D side

$503.9K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

THINK BIG

For / against split

For Morelle $503.9K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
THINK BIG	D	$503.9K	100%	for Joseph Morelle

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-18

Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks