Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
Alissa Ellman vs Claudia Tenney
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.0 (10th pctile) to R+5.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.9
80% CI: R +38.0 → R +5.8 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 16¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-24 House seat?” | 16¢ | 84¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
2
Endorsements tracked
Alissa Ellman2 · 50%
Claudia Tenney2 · 50%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RClaudia Tenney2 endorsers
Most notable · Conservative Party of New York State
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Conservative Party of New York State
- Maggie's List
DAlissa Ellman2 endorsers
Most notable · Communication Workers of America · District 1
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Working Families Party · ies Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-06Claudia TenneyH4NY22051 ↗
Receipts
$2.4M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Alissa Ellman
Receipts
$167.9K
Disburse
$164.4K
Cash on hand
$3.6K
Debts
$17.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.3K
D side
$1.3K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.3K | 100% | against Claudia Tenney |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-06
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks