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Races · house · 2026 · New York
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house · open seat

John Mannion vs John Lemondes Jr.

← New York houseNew York house →
Likely DD +13.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
86% Mannion (D)
14% Jr. (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +13.8 · 80% CI R+2.3 → D+29.9 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 88¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 86% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 89%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.3 (10th pctile) to D+29.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.8
80% CI: R +2.3 → D +29.9 · win prob 86%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI R +28.0 → D +19.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.1
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 88¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?”
87¢11¢+1¢—-1
Kalshi
“NY-22 House winner?”
89¢11¢+0¢$0K+1

Endorsements · 15 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
15Mannion · 100%
DJohn Mannion15 endorsers
Most notable · Claudia Tenney · NY-24 (2021–present)
Organizations12
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
RJohn Lemondes Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IWilliam Staton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-04-15
John MannionH4NY22085 ↗
Receipts
$2.4M
Disburse
$904.6K
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
John Lemondes Jr.OWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$44.5K
Disburse
$29.9K
Cash on hand
$14.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
William StatonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$16.3K
Disburse
$0
Cash on hand
$16.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$73.2K
D side
$73.2K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
LCV Victory Fund
For / against split
For Mannion $73.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
LCV Victory FundD$71.4K98%for John Mannion
NEW YORK STATE COMMITTEE OF THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTYD$8751%for John Mannion
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PACD$870.331%for John Mannion
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$30.920%for John Mannion

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-04-15
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks