Races · house · 2026 · New York

house · open seat

Patrick Halpin vs Andrew Garbarino

← New York house New York house →

Safe RR +15.4 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
11% Halpin (D)
89% Garbarino (R)
Win probability
Patrick Halpin11% (D)
Andrew Garbarino89% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +15.4
80% CIR+31.5 → D+0.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +15.4 · 80% CI R+31.5 → D+0.7 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 27¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 89% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.5 (10th pctile) to D+0.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 89% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +15.4

80% CI: R +31.5 → D +0.7 · win prob 11%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +15.5

80% CI R +23.4 → R +12.8

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +4.1

80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5

CV MAE 3.58

consensusMarket-implied

R +5.7

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 27¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

20¢25¢30¢35¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?”	27¢	74¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 33 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

1Halpin · 3%
Garbarino · 97%32
Endorsements tracked
Patrick Halpin1 · 3%
Andrew Garbarino32 · 97%
Total33
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RAndrew Garbarino32 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials12

Federal 9State 1Local 1

Organizations11

Other7

Celebrity2

DPatrick Halpin1 endorser

Most notable · Working Families Party · ies Party

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Andrew GarbarinoOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$2.8M

Disburse

$1.5M

Cash on hand

$2.8M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Patrick HalpinOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$427.9K

Disburse

$345.3K

Cash on hand

$82.6K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.