Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
Josh Riley vs Peter Oberacker
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 65% D · market gap 16pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 81%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.2 (10th pctile) to D+21.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 65% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 65%, market says 81% — 16pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.9
80% CI: R +11.2 → D +21.0 · win prob 65%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +3.9
80% CI R +14.6 → D +13.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.9
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
7
Endorsements tracked
Josh Riley23 · 77%
Peter Oberacker7 · 23%
Total30
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJosh Riley23 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- AIPAC
- Brady Campaign
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- House Foreign Affairs Committee · ctor for the House Foreign Affairs Committee
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Working Families Party · ies Party
Other4
Other · 4
- Chris Tague · AD-102 (2018–present)
- Mike Lawler · NY-17 (2023–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
Elected officials3
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · Speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Peter Oberacker · state senator from the 51st district (2021–present)
RPeter Oberacker7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 4State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · Speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Chris Tague · AD-102 (2018–present)
- Mike Lawler · NY-17 (2023–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Conservative Party of New York State
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-28Josh RileyH8NY22177 ↗
Receipts
$4.3M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$2.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Peter Oberacker
Receipts
$956.7K
Disburse
$704.6K
Cash on hand
$252.2K
Debts
$100.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$65.8K
D side
$65.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
LCV Victory Fund
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCV Victory Fund other · boosts D
| D | $60.4K | 92% | for Josh Riley |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.9K | 4% | for Josh Riley |
| NEW YORK STATE COMMITTEE OF THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY party · boosts D
| D | $2.3K | 3% | for Josh Riley |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $158.67 | 0% | for Josh Riley |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-28
Endorsements30 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks