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Races · house · 2026 · New York
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house · open seat

Troy McGhie vs Nicole Malliotakis

← New York houseNew York house →
Safe RR +22.0 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
4% McGhie (D)
96% Malliotakis (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +22.0 · 80% CI R+38.1 → R+5.9 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 11¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.1 (10th pctile) to R+5.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.0
80% CI: R +38.1 → R +5.9 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.9
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 11¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?”
11¢88¢-1¢—+0

Endorsements · 10 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
6McGhie · 60%
Malliotakis · 40%4
DTroy McGhie6 endorsers
Most notable · Charles Fall · state assemblymember from the 61st district (2019–present) and chair of the Staten Island Democratic Party (2025–present)
Organizations4
Celebrity1
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
RNicole Malliotakis4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations3
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-01-30
Nicole MalliotakisH0NY11078 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$2.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Troy McGhieOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$79.6K
Disburse
$79.6K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.5K
D side
$3.5K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
FREE AND FAIR DEMOC…
For / against split
Against Malliotakis $3.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PACD$3.5K100%against Nicole Malliotakis

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-01-30
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks