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Races · house · 2026 · Nevada
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Steven Horsford vs Cody Whipple

← Nevada houseNew York house →
Likely DD +9.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
78% Horsford (D)
22% Whipple (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +9.6 · 80% CI R+6.5 → D+25.7 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 91¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 78% D · market gap 15pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 93%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.5 (10th pctile) to D+25.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 78% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 78%, market says 93% — 15pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.6
80% CI: R +6.5 → D +25.7 · win prob 78%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.1
80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.6
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 91¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?”
89¢12¢+1¢—-2
Kalshi
“NV-04 House winner?”
93¢10¢+0¢$0K+2
Polymarket sits 2¢ below consensus.

Endorsements · 25 total

Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yet
19Horsford · 83%
Flippo · 17%4
DSteven Horsford19 endorsers
Most notable · Celeste Maloy · UT-02 (2023–present)
Organizations13
Other6
RDavid Flippo4 endorsers
Most notable · Lauren Boebert · CO-04 (2021–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Organizations1
RCody Whipple2 endorsers
Most notable · Celeste Maloy · UT-02 (2023–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
RCarrie Buck0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDina Titus0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTeresa Benitez-Thompson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSusie Lee0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMartin O'Donnell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-30
David FlippoH4NV04108 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Steven HorsfordH2NV04011 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$22.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Cody WhippleOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$751.4K
Disburse
$461.1K
Cash on hand
$290.3K
Debts
$372.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Susie LeeOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$0
Disburse
$1.1K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$63.9K
D side
$6.1K · 10%
R side
$57.8K · 90%
Top spender
American Honor PAC
For / against split
For Horsford $6.1K
For Flippo $57.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
American Honor PACR$57.8K90%for David Flippo
WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT CMTE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS & JOINERS OF AMERICAD$6.1K9%for Steven Horsford
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$79.330%for Steven Horsford

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D3
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-30
Endorsements25 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks