Races · house · 2026 · Nevada
house · open seat
James Lally vs Tera Anderson
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 66% D · market gap 21pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 87%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.0 (10th pctile) to D+21.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 66% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 66%, market says 87% — 21pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.1
80% CI: R +11.0 → D +21.2 · win prob 66%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +4.8
80% CI D +2.3 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.0
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
1
Endorsements tracked
James Lally1 · 50%
Tera Anderson1 · 50%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJames Lally1 endorser
Most notable · Track AIPAC
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Track AIPAC
RTera Anderson1 endorser
Most notable · Bob List · former governor of Nevada (1979–1983)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Bob List · former governor of Nevada (1979–1983)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-29Tera AndersonH6NV03220 ↗
Receipts
$317.1K
Disburse
$268.2K
Cash on hand
$48.9K
Debts
$100.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
James Lally
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$261.2K
Debts
$1.0M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$60.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$60.0K · 100%
Top spender
Nevadans for Afford…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevadans for Affordability PAC other · boosts R
| R | $60.0K | 100% | for Tera Anderson |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-29
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks